Turning risk into resilience: Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment

Last week, I turned on the TV and saw something rare – climate change leading the national conversation. Headlines were dominated by the release of Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (National Assessment), and I felt a genuine sense of hope. Finally, the federal government was formally recognising the urgent need to better understand climate risk and the impacts of climate change on Australia.

The key findings of the National Assessment are sobering. Natural hazards such as extreme temperatures, bushfires, storms and flooding are projected to become fiercer in the years to come. While Australia has always had an extreme climate compared to much of the world – bushfires, floods and extreme temperatures are a feature of where we live – the risks associated with climate change will affect every part of Australian life and the economy and are, in the words of Chris Bowen (Minister for Energy and Climate Change): “cascading, compounding and concurrent”.

Under a 3°C global warming scenario, heat-related deaths are estimated to rise by a staggering 444% in Sydney and 423% in Darwin compared to current conditions. Sea level rise could impact 1.5 million Australians by 2050, increasing to over 3 million by 2090. And Brisbane could face up to 314 days of flooding a year. 

Ultimately, the National Assessment provides the strongest evidence yet that climate risk is no longer a future issue – it’s a present and growing reality that must shape how we design, build, and manage our cities and communities.

Implications for the built environment sector

Without action, exposure to natural hazards will become an even greater defining factor in Australia’s built environment. Decisions around buying, leasing, and investing will increasingly be led by what is safe and liveable. Many homes and buildings could become uninsurable, especially in high-risk areas.

In response to this challenge, alongside the National Assessment, the Australian Government has published a National Adaptation Plan, outlining “a vision and objectives for a well-adapted Australia”. As part of this Plan, the built environment is identified as offering key opportunities for proactive, climate-informed decision-making. 

Several initiatives, such as expanding NatHERS ratings to include existing homes and a National Energy Performance Strategy, target improving the energy efficiency and thermal comfort of buildings, allowing occupants to better manage the internal conditions of their homes and places of work at lower costs, while also reducing operational carbon. Other initiatives such as an Urban Rivers and Catchments Program and extreme heat planning seek to better prepare and adapt our urban areas to climate hazards. 

Where to from here? Turning risk into resilience

The cost of inaction is already outpacing the cost of proactive measures. Leaders in our industry shouldn’t wait for regulation to force their hand. Resilience strategies must be embedded into every stage of building design and planning, starting yesterday.

Here’s what clients should be prioritising:

• Understand your risk now: Conduct climate risk assessments tailored to your assets, operations, and locations. Without this foundation, adaptation efforts may be ineffective or even counterproductive.
• Embed resilience into design: Every new project should integrate climate resilience principles to ensure development is prepared for future hazards, from site selection to good passive design and thermal comfort.
• Think long-term: Disaster costs are projected to reach A$40.3 billion annually by 2050. And with data from the Insurance Council of Australia showing that every $1 invested in resilience can return $9.60, the case for urgent investment has never been clearer. Can you afford to wait until governance and regulation catch up?
• Make risk informed decisions: Future leasing, investment, and development choices will be shaped by what is safe, liveable, and insurable.

The National Assessment and Adaptation Plan do not just highlight financial risks – they reveal how climate change will ripple across infrastructure, ecosystems, health, and productivity. The buildings we design and construct today will still be standing well beyond 2050, into a climate future that will look very different from today. The decisions we make now will define the resilience of our communities tomorrow. We must act now, and act quickly, to build a climate resilient future for Australia and the world.